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Automotive Inventory Data and Sales Forecasts December 2021


The ZeroSum Market First Report is the automotive industry’s first source to predict month-end vehicle movement, providing vital supply and demand trend data to automotive marketers and dealers. ZeroSum uses predictive modeling to accurately estimate new vehicle inventory, pricing trends, and market share.


December 2021 New Vehicle Inventory 

ZeroSum has been steadily monitoring the impact of inventory shortages on the automotive industry throughout 2021. December began with 3% more new vehicles on the ground than November, representing the second consecutive month of inventory growth, an increase of 27,530 units available for sale. Ford currently maintains the strongest inventory position in the market, while General Motors showed the strongest gains in available inventory, driven by a 16% increase in available Silverado 1500 inventory, while F150 and Ram 1500 inventory remained flat. Inventory levels remain significantly lower than last year, with year over year inventory in December down 66% compared to 2020, a decrease of over 1.7 million units. Still, after 10 consecutive months of inventory decreases, the last two months of 2021 represent a positive trend heading into the new year.

New Vehicle Inventory Month over Month

 

Inventory Movement

ZeroSum’s MarketAI platform tracks inventory as it leaves dealers’ lots in order to predict monthly sales outcomes. December is forecasted to finish 13% above November in total new units sold. General Motors and Jeep are poised to make the biggest month over month sales gains, driven largely by the performance of Silverado, Sierra, and Compass.

Additionally, MarketAI tracks vehicles added to dealers’ inventory, in order to predict manufacturer production and overall inventory supply. 14% more vehicles were added to dealers’ inventory in December than November, with the increase led by Toyota, Jeep, Nissan, and Hyundai. When more inventory is added than is moved, overall inventory levels start to rise, which is what happened in December.

MarketAI also tracks turn rates of new inventory across the industry, representing how quickly new vehicles are being sold. The average turn rate of new inventory was 110% in December, representing an annual high. These record high turn rates mean dealers are now selling more vehicles in a month than they have on their lot on any given day, representing a new reality that is likely to continue into 2022, and emphasizing the importance of dealers continuing to sell faster than their competitors.

Vehicles Moved vs. Added

Automotive Pricing Trends

New vehicle prices have steadily risen throughout 2021 as inventory levels have decreased. The average MSRP of a new vehicle is up 0.2% in December compared to last month and 16% over last year. The gap between MSRP and retail list prices has disappeared, whereas the average retail price was over 6% less than MSRP a year ago. Brands experiencing the greatest month over month price increases are Mitsubishi, Buick, Audi, Lexus, and Honda. While price increases have slowed somewhat as inventory volumes increase month over month, the continued increase in prices, along with rising inventory and sales levels, signal a strong end to the year for auto retailers.

Average Price Month over Month

 

Month over Month Inventory Data by Brand

 

About ZeroSum Market First Report 

ZeroSum’s Market First Report is based on ZeroSum’s retail vehicle movement and pricing indices, powered by real-time data gathered using ZeroSum’s data-driven marketing platform MarketAI. The platform brings together vast amount of data, including all available light vehicle inventory in the U.S., to help improve marketing performance. MarketAI allows dealers to analyze their market in real-time, using sales conversion rates, market turn rates, days’ supply, and competitive inventory. 

 

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About ZeroSum 
ZeroSum is a leader in software, marketing, and data. Powered by its SaaS platform, MarketAI, ZeroSum is simplifying and modernizing automotive marketing by leveraging artificial intelligence, data, and scaling ability to acquire new customers. ZeroSum is the first and only company that matches consumer demand with automotive data in real time. For more information, visit 
https://zerosum.ai